Three crucial indicators will signal the worst is over for risky assets (such as equities) and these assets are ready to move higher in price. They will also signal the reverse for defensive assets.
S&P 500 Volatility Index: needs to move lower into the 15 to 25 range. This would indicate that investors expect the upper and lower trading range of the S&P 500 Index to remain relatively modest over the next 12 months.
As at end December was at 45 and now fallen to 39.
Ted-Spread: the difference between the three-month sovereign Treasury bill yield and the London Interbank Offered Rate for US Dollars, (LIBOR). A narrowing of the spread will be a good indicator that Interbank counter-party risk aversion is abating.
The spread was around 1.46 (23 Dec) and now 1.33 and just above where the rate differential was just before Lehman Bros collapsed. (click below to enlarge)
Yield on the short-dated Treasury bills: watch for an indication that the yield of these instruments is heading closer to the official cash rate, rather than at yields last seen around the time of World War II. This would be a good indicator that investor risk aversion is gradually abating.
US Treasury yields across the board were generally higher through late Dec to 2 January.
UST 90 day ranged between 0.0% and 0.04% (peaks on 23 Dec and 2 Jan).
UST 2s steady at 0.82% (0.9% pre Christmas, Dec range was 0.64% – 0.94%) and UST 10s up 20bps to 2.37% (2.17% pre Christmas, Dec range was 2.05% – 2.70%).
US 30 Yr is offering virtually nil return at 0.01% compared to the cash rate of 0.0% - 0.25%.
Given that cash rates are close to Zero, the Fed recently noted that it had “obviously limited” room to lower rates further, but that the US Fed might use unconventional policies, such as buying US Bonds, ie. keeping rates down, to revive the economy, thus this indicator may not be a trigger.
Investors have been focussed on ‘return OF capital rather than return ON capital’.
When you have done all of the right things – been educated, via school or life, worked hard, in business or at home, saved and invested money, spent wisely, paid your bills on time – it may be especially disconcerting that you’ve lost so much money due to the current economic crisis. Although none of us caused this economic mess, we are all in this together. Like it or not, it is always those who have behaved responsibly who end up bailing out the irresponsible.
Just about everyone has experienced significant declines in the value of their home and their portfolio. So what do we do about it? One thing we can control is how we spend our money. I advocated being thoughtful and careful when making your spending decisions, and to spend consistent with your values.
Below are some ideas on how to cut expenses without really impacting your lifestyle. I just finished refinancing my home loan and bundled some telephone services to reduce the cost. In fact, I have done or continue to do everything on the list below. I was recently interviewed for a Consumer Reports article on how to help people reduce their expenses, so sharing of ideas is helpful. Be thoughtful about your spending and your purchases.
Ideas on how to save money:
Monitor your usage of and check with your service providers such as mobile phone, cable TV, land line to see if they have less expensive plans or packages (for example, bundled services). There are special promotions all the time, and sometimes you can receive a discount just by asking.
If you have investment property that may have previously been highly valued enough to attract tax, have it revalued to ensure that you are fairly appraised
Take a look at refinancing your home loan as interest rates are very low.
Review your gym and other memberships and cancel, freeze or downgrade if you’re not using the services. If you’re not using your membership stop paying for it.
For travel, compare fares and prices. Take advantage of websites such as lastminute.com and wotif.com
Shop online – saves time and gas – or shop over the phone by calling vendors in advance to check product availability and prices.
Reduce your carbon footprint and reduce consumption and your bills.
Use coupons and vouchers (from newspapers, coupon books, mailers, websites), clubs (grocery store, Costco, restaurant) when you shop or dine out.
A great money-saving idea is to buy the “Entertainment Book” which comes out each year. These books contain coupons for two-for-one dinners, discounted movie ticket, hotels, etc. You can now buy the 2009 Entertainment Book at a reduced price at entertainment.com.
If you have any ideas on how to beat the economic blues, feel free to share them.
Can it get any worse? And what should I do with my investments? What now for markets?
After making waves in 2007, the global financial crisis hit our shores with the force of a tidal wave last year. It translated rapidly into the slump in the real economy that we are seeing now – job losses, drying up of credit and company closures. It even picked up its own acronym – GFC. For investors, the fallout was felt in heavy falls in share markets around the world. Share-based portfolios were particularly hard hit. Rises in government bonds were not enough to reduce the impact by much. Now cash interest rates have also fallen to 40-year lows leaving those approaching retirement, in particular, with nowhere to hide.
The questions everyone is asking are: Can it get any worse? And what should I do with my investments?
Neither is easy to answer. But while there may still be dark days ahead, there are also glimmers of light at the end of a long tunnel.
Where to from here? The current crisis has seen an unprecedented response from governments around the world. Eager to avoid the mistakes of the past, particularly the 1930s and 1970s, economic policies have been introduced to restore confidence and spending and stabilise markets.
In Australia these measures have included huge injections of cash to buoy the retail sector and save and create jobs. It will take time for these measures to work – you don’t spend $42 billion overnight – and there is a long way to go before business and investor confidence is restored. But it’s a start.
The outlook for 2009 is for continued slowing in economic growth, and rising unemployment in most economies with major industrialised countries pushed into recession.
Beyond 2009, our long-range view is for signs of recovery in the global economy to emerge in 2010 under the influence of the massive stimulus described above. Investor confidence should begin to re-emerge and investors, who are currently showing a preference for bonds and cash over shares, will return to equity markets. Volatility will eventually subside. More resilient financial companies and banks will survive the current crisis and emerge stronger than before.
If the global recession becomes more protracted, however, recovery will take longer and it will be harder for companies to make a profit and deliver good returns to shareholders for a longer period.
Investment outlook The chart below shows the International Monetary Fund’s projections for global growth. The IMF expects a slow recovery to begin in 2010, after a sharp slowdown this year. Cash or shares?
Given the scale of the crisis, it’s tempting to think share markets will never come good – and thus to consider switching all investments to cash. This is where your timeframe for investment is most important.
What we do know is that over the majority of long periods in the past, a broadly diversified global share portfolio has done better than cash – in many cases significantly better. However the timing and sequence of returns from both shares and cash is unpredictable.
Eighteen months ago, for example, it seemed that half of Australia was struggling to fix their mortgage interest rate at around 8 – 9%. Now some are looking into the break fees (how much they need to pay) to move back to much lower variable rates.
There is no doubt that 2008 was an extraordinary year, and over the short-term share markets are likely to remain volatile. However, this short-term relief may come at a high price over the long term. By settling for a certain, but very low, return investors risk:
turning a paper loss into an actual loss when shares are cashed in
being out of the market when the share market recovers. It’s important to note that history shows recovery can come without warning.
missing out on dividend income. Even when share prices fall, many good quality companies still pay meaningful dividends. In Australia, falling share prices have pushed historic dividend yields on the All Ordinaries Index to more than 6%. At the same time, the cash return is now 3.25%, and likely to go lower. Shares potentially provide a better income return and potential for capital growth.
failing to achieve investment objectives over the long term. Even if it takes the Australian share market as long as 10 years to recover to its 2008 high, this still equates to an average annual return of 6.3%. Add dividend reinvestments to this, and the return is likely to be much higher, and a much healthier figure than the current cash rate.
Financial Standard, Tuesday, 10 February 2009 12:20pm Women are more likely to use a financial planner, own investment property and trust the past performance of investment strategies than men, new RaboPlus research found.The study, undertaken by Rabobank's online banking division, found women are 20 per cent more likely to use a financial planner or consultant than men. Also, women generally would rather consult an accountant, financial advisor or family friend than rely on the internet for information, whereas men a more inclined to use the internet as a primary source of information.Investment property is favoured more by women, with the study finding 54 per cent of females are more prone to own investment property compared to only 46 per cent of men.Past performance is more important among women, 57 per cent of women said they placed more trust in past returns and seek a safe expected rate of return compared to 41 per cent of men.Self managed super funds (SMSF) are also a preferred super vehicle among women, with women aged between 40 to 59 more likely to have an SMSF than men. "The study shows women are looking to take more control of their investment , particularly women aged over 40 years who are more likely than men to own a [SMSF]," said Tim Hewson, RaboPlus senior manager investments and managed funds."They also appear to be more strategic in their investment approach than men, seek associated tax benefits and want a full understanding of an investment before investing."The study asked 213 women and 289 men with more than $150,000 in personal savings their point of view late last year. Are you a woman in need of good financial advice? Contact us for a complementary meeting and let us show you how we can develop individual and customised strategies to help secure your financial future.
By Online parliamentary correspondent Emma Rodgers (ABC News)
The measures will contribute to a predicted budget deficit of $22.5 billion. (ABC News: Gi
More than $40 billion will be pumped into education and community infrastructure, public housing, business tax breaks and one-off cash payments in an economic stimulus plan to offset the effects of the global financial crisis.
The Government says its $42 billion Nation Building and Jobs Plan will help "support and sustain" over 90,000 jobs in the next two years and give a boost to the economy of 0.5 per cent of GDP and put growth at 1 per cent for 2008-09.
But it is also forecasting unemployment will rise to 7 per cent next year.
The measures will contribute to a predicted budget deficit of $22.5 billion.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says the plan provides a basis to see Australia through the crisis, but he has conceded it will not eliminate the country's economic woes.
"It does not represent the removal of the problem - it is our best effort to reduce the problem," he said.
"It is a strategy in which a nation can have confidence and as I have said before, it is a strategy to which we will add in the future as is necessary."
Mr Rudd said the Government also remains committed to taking further actions to support growth and jobs if needed.
The bulk of the spending will be allocated to education infrastructure and public and defence housing.
Almost $15 billion will be injected into primary school buildings and maintenance for both primary and secondary schools.
The money will be used to upgrade large infrastructure such as libraries, build 500 new science laboratories and language centres and provide $200,000 for each school for maintenance.
Mr Rudd said the program represents the single largest modernisation of schools in Australia's history.
"This investment in every one of the nation's 7,500 primary schools is designed to build the primary schools we need for the 21st century," he said.
Over 20,000 public and Defence houses will be built and 2,500 others upgraded at a cost of $6.6 billion.
Small businesses will also have access to $2.7 billion to bring forward maintenance on capital expenditure.
The Government will also provide free ceiling insulation to almost 3 million homes, a move which it says can cut $200 a year off energy bills and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 49.4 million tonnes by 2020.
Tax bonuses and cash handouts
Millions of Australians are also set to benefit from $12.7 billion worth of tax bonuses and one off payments to low and middle-income households, farmers, single-income families and students.
Those earning up to $80,000 are eligible for a tax bonus of $950, while those earning between $80,000 and $90,000 will receive $600 and those earning between $90,000 and $100,000 will receive $300.
The Government estimate almost 10 million Australians will be eligible for the bonuses.
A cash payment of $950 will also be given to single-income families, farmers facing hardship, parents with children heading back to school and students and unemployed people returning to study.
The cash payments will be released next month and the bonuses from April.
The Government says the cash payments are immediate measures to support jobs and strengthen growth during the global recession.
Nation Building and Jobs Plan main points
A $42 billion package consisting of:
$14.7b for school infrastructure and maintenance;
$6.6b for community and Defence housing;
$2.7b small business tax break;
$890 million for community infrastructure and road improvements;
$8.2b tax bonus for those earning under $100,000;
$1.4 billion for single income families;
$20.4 million for farmers in hardship;
$2.6 billion for children going back to school;
$511 million for students and unemployed returning to training;
Free ceiling insulation for around 2.7 million homes;
An increase to the solar hot water rebate of $600 and a doubling of the Low Emissions Plan for Renters to $1,000.
Forecasts
However the package will help contribute to keeping the Budget in deficit over the next four years and unemployment is also expected to rise to 7 per cent, revised Treasury figures show.
The Government's spending measures, including last October's package of $10.4 billion, and the loss of $115 billion of revenue over the next four years will see a predicted $22.5 billion deficit for 2008-09.
The Budget figures are massively revised down since last November, when the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast a surplus of $5.6 billion.
"Nobody likes being in deficit and I don't like being in deficit at all," Mr Rudd said.
"This is not a matter of choice - this is what we're required to do."
It is expected that 2009-10 will see a deficit of $35.5 billion, 2010-11 a deficit of $34.3 billion and 2011-12 a deficit of $25.7 billion.
This year's deficit amounts to almost 2 per cent of Australia's GDP.
The Government says it has allowed the Budget to move into deficit because it would be "irresponsible" not to act now to stave off the effects of the global downturn.
It says it is still committed to delivering budget surpluses over the "economic cycle" but jobs and growth are the main priority.
But Mr Rudd said the Government did not know at this stage how long the economic cycle might be.
Last week the IMF forecast world growth for this year would be only 0.5 per cent.
Revised economic outlook
A $22.5 billion deficit for 2008-09, $35.5 billion for 2009-10, $34.3 billion for 2010-11 and $25.7 billion for 2011-12;
This year's deficit is 1.9 per cent of GDP, while next year's will be 2.9 per cent of GDP;
Growth after the package is released is forecast at 1 per cent for this year and 0.75 per cent for 2009-10;
Unemployment forecast to rise to 7 per cent by June 2010;
Where's the January effect when you need it most? Wikipedia describes this stock market phenomenon best:
"The January effect is the tendency of the stock market to rise between December 31 and the end of the first week in January. There are many theories for why this happens, the main one being that it occurs because many investors choose to sell some of their stock right before the end of the year in order to claim a capital loss for tax purposes. Once the tax calendar rolls over to a new year on January 1st these same investors quickly reinvest their money in the market, causing stock prices to rise. The January effect has been observed numerous times throughout history, though the first week of January 2008 was a notable exception."
A corollary to this is that the stock market's performance in the first five trading days of January determines the market's returns for the entire year. If this assumption holds, equities are destined for a flat to positive performance this year. The major equity index's return over the first five days of the first month of 2009 is shown below:
S&P 500 0.4%Dow Jones -0.1%All Ordinaries 1.9%Nikkei-225 4.3%DJ Euro Stoxx 4.4%FTSE-100 1.7%
These may not be the double-digit positive returns investors have grown accustomed to before the global financial crisis, but they are significantly better than the double-digit losses of the past two years.
But before investors celebrate, be aware that this ‘rule' has also been proven to be a fallacy. What has been determined to be more accurate is the theory that the market's performance for the entire month of January predicts the direction of equities for the remaining 11 months of the year. Statistical analysis shows that this had been correct nearly 75 per cent of the time.
This means that investors have to wait until the end of the month to see what 2009 have in store in terms of equity market return. The inauguration of US President-elect Barack Obama this coming 20 January could set the stage for a market rebound that could last until the end of the month and hopefully beyond. However, economic statistics set for release in the next two weeks are not expected to be equity-friendly either. Worse, they could show that global fortunes have deteriorated even more.Guess investors would have to just wait and see what the next fortnight brings. Then again, there's also a 25 percent chance that the next 11 months do not reflect what happens in January.
And we sincerely hope it is a good one . . . so what's anticipated for 2009? John Robertson from All things Considered has two views:
The pessimistic view about the economic outlook rests on an assumption that this cycle is fundamentally different to all that have gone before.
Optimism about 2009 rests on a single pillar: that the current cycle is similar to others in its essential features. Each cycle has its peculiarities but, in each case, recession is a way to purge the economic system of excess and redress imbalances that have built up over the prior three or four years. The flexibility of our economies and the ingenuity of our entrepreneurial classes is then enough to force a recovery and create a new cycle (which unerringly duplicates much of what went before).
The countervailing view is that our current predicament is more than simply a cycle repeating itself. It is a breakdown of the financial order which has damaged, if not destroyed, important self repairing mechanisms.
Traditional monetary policy tools operate through a well functioning financial system. Since we no longer have such a thing, monetary policy will not work. In any event, the ten years prior to 2008 were an aberration. Restoring those times is not an option under any feasible circumstances. Those for whom this period was the benchmark of success will forever be disappointed.
No cycle has been so outrageously supported by monetary authorities. It was apparent at the time and even more evident with hindsight that less dire adjustments were being postponed by a Federal Reserve overly concerned about propping up asset markets. The current adjustment is, at least in part, a need to compensate for the egregious policy failings of Alan Greenspan. Over a year into the current U.S. recession, U.S. policymakers remain preoccupied with what happens on the southern tip of Manhattan and, in leaving the rest to fend for themselves, are damaging those who really count. Ditto in the UK and elsewhere.
Debt was the wind beneath the wings of consumers. This phenomenon relied on ever rising residential property prices eagerly supported by policymakers around the world with the active encouragement of those pursuing electoral success. Even if prices are restored, several decades might have to pass before they will be allowed to underpin current consumption in the same way.
Even an optimistic view of the world would have to concede that banks will take many years to rejuvenate their balance sheets and claw back their profitability. Recall, in this context, what happened in Australia in the early 1990s after the failure of several financial institutions and the near death experience of others. Remember the debate about whether banks were retarding recovery due to their overly cautious lending practices. Expect this conversation to be happening globally in 2012-2014.
Financial markets will be so heavily regulated and operationally constrained by their government ownership that they will lose their freedom to innovate. Without new financial products, new business opportunities in the real economy will be stifled.
Rapidly expanding government debt will burden financial markets for decades. Luckily, governments can borrow cheaply because business and households are less inclined to do so. Somewhere down the track, government funding of debt might start to compete with private demands. In any case, we are not solving the problem of too much debt. We are simply altering its incidence. The debt problem remains.
The pace of asset price inflation leading up to 2008 was always at odds with the emerging macroeconomic picture of slowing global growth as population growth decelerated and, in places like eastern Europe and Japan, population numbers actually declined. On that front alone, something had to give.
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